WSJ: Greeks Head to Election Polls Discontent and Disillusioned

15/5/2014

By Alkman Granitsas And Nektaria Stamouli

Local and European Elections This Month Emerge as Referendum on Coalition Government

Days before local and European Parliament elections, Vassilis Sotirakos still can't decide whom to vote for—only that it won't be for any party with a shred of power in Greece.

Mr. Sotirakos, an unemployed accountant who is traditionally a center-right voter, says he won't back either of the two parties in Greece's governing coalition. And he has ruled out voting for the radical left opposition, as well as any of the four smaller parties that also hold seats in Parliament. To him, they have all been tainted by vested interests.

"Basically, my vote will be a revolt against the system," the 26-year-old said. "I will vote for a smaller party because I am disappointed with our political system."

Despite recent signs that Greece is starting to turn a corner in its four-year-long debt crisis, many Greeks are still seething at the country's elected leaders and lawmakers, whom they blame for steering the country into ruin in the first place.

The dual elections, which take place May 18 and 25, have emerged as a referendum of sorts on the coalition government of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras —its first electoral test since coming into power almost two years ago. The results won't alter the coalition's narrow two-seat majority in Greece's 300-seat legislature. But the outcome could determine whether Greece sticks with its reform agenda—or is plunged into renewed political uncertainty.

At stake is whether the vote will embolden—or demoralize—the coalition as it heads for a greater electoral challenge early next year: the selection of the country's president by Parliament in March, a vote the government must win with a supermajority of at least 180 votes. The role is largely a ceremonial one, but if no president is elected after three rounds of voting, Parliament is dissolved and general elections are called.

A drubbing in the polls this month could reopen fissures within the coalition—already strained by the tough austerity measures it has had to back—and raise fresh doubts over whether the government can secure the extra votes it needs to appoint a new chief of state.

"If the governing coalition is seen weakened by the election, it will be in a very difficult position even if the vote doesn't affect their parliamentary majority," said John Dimakis at STR Ltd, an Athens-based political communications consultancy. "If the government manages to get through the elections without any big losses, it will emerge stronger."

In an economy in its seventh year of recession, a quarter of Greece's workforce remains unemployed and as many households live below or close to the poverty line. Such harsh conditions have fueled the rise of Greece's leftist opposition party, Syriza, which has been expected to capture the most seats in European Parliament elections May 25. Since the start of the year, though, polls show that Mr. Samaras's center-right New Democracy party has nearly closed a roughly three-percentage-point lead by Syriza—which is struggling with internal divisions and a mixed campaign message.

Alexandros Papadopoulos, 23, who lives in Athens and ekes out a living handing out promotional fliers, says he intends to vote with his pocketbook. "Basically, I'm unemployed and what I earn doing this is ridiculous," he said. "I'm going to be voting for a better tomorrow."

Still, he's not sure who he will vote for either. "Probably left, but I have no one specific in mind," he adds.

In municipal and regional elections—which will be held over two Sundays, the second round coinciding with the European Parliament vote—local issues largely dominate and political-party machines hold sway. Greeks are expected to return many incumbents to office, and most are identified with either New Democracy or its junior coalition partner, Pasok. In local elections, though, candidates traditionally campaign under their own party banner and eschew national party labels, meaning that party preference—or disapproval—is expected to play less of a role in voters' minds.

Of Greece's 13 regions, for example, few Syriza candidates are expected to garner enough votes to compete in a runoff vote and aren't expected to win any regions outright. In three of Greece's biggest municipalities—Athens, the port town of Piraeus, and the northern Greek city of Thessaloniki—Pasok and New Democracy incumbents hold solid leads over rivals. That is also the case in the Attica region, the prefecture surrounding Athens where roughly 40% of Greece's population lives.

But with the local elections to be held over two Sundays, analysts warn that polling data may be unreliable and underscore the uncertainty in Greece's pre-election landscape. The rise of new parties such as To Potami—a center-left, pro-reform movement started by a Greek television journalist—also makes forecasts difficult. Though To Potami was launched only three months ago, recent polls show it attracting some 9% of voter support. The rise has presented a challenge to socialist party Pasok, whose leader is struggling to lift the party off historic lows and is facing grumbling within party ranks.

"It is very difficult to make any forecasts about the outcome of the elections," said Ilias Nikolakopoulos, a professor of political science at Athens University. "In effect, we are looking at three separate votes and each will influence the other."

"The feeling we have is that Syriza is a little ahead in the polls," he adds. "But neither it, nor New Democracy, has the momentum." Two recent polls show that roughly a fifth—and in one poll, as many as 40%—of Greek voters either are undecided, plan to abstain from voting, or will vote for one of the 40-odd marginal parties vying for seats in the European Parliament elections.

Nikolaos Eufrenides, who repairs watches for a living in Athens, is another voter still deciding. A longtime Communist party backer, the 48-year-old Mr. Eufrenides, is thinking of voting for Syriza this time around—although he isn't quite certain.

"I've given up on the Communist party because they are so inflexible in their positions," said Mr. Eufrenides. "Now I'm wondering if Syriza can do something better for the average person, but I'm not really sure that they can."

What he does know for sure, he says, is who is to blame for the crisis: the two parties now in power and which have alternately ruled Greece for much of the past 40 years. "Those two have been the curse of this country," he says.
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