The big issues still to be settled about Britain’s post-EU existence

24/6/2016

What the vote means for trade, immigration and growth has yet to be determined

The UK has voted to strike a new course outside the EU in one of the most momentous decisions in the country’s postwar history. Now the real questions begin.

Even as the reality sinks in that Britain voted to leave the bloc in Thursday’s In/Out referendum on membership, the consequences of that vote — what it means for trade, immigration and growth — have yet to be determined.

The FT looks at some of the big issues still to be settled about Britain’s post-EU existence.
Trade

One of the most fundamental decisions facing the UK is what kind of relationship to have with the remainder of the EU. While leading Leave campaigners have ruled out remaining in the EU’s single market — which would require the continued free movement of people from the bloc — such an option could be the least disruptive to the economy. Alternatives would include striking a deal modelled on Switzerland’s current arrangement with the EU or accessing the bloc under World Trade Organisation rules.

Immigration

Once Britain leaves the EU, citizens from the bloc will no longer have the automatic right to live and work in the bloc, although restrictions are likely to apply to new entrants rather than to EU nationals already in the country. After a campaign in which public concern about record numbers of EU migrants played a prominent role, the UK will also eventually have to decide how much immigration to allow. Few other issues will play as big a role in determining the future of British society. Here is a depiction of what the UK would be like without high immigration, based on Office for National Statistics projections, compared with the country’s trajectory as an EU member.

The economy

The consensus among economists is that Brexit will hit UK growth — in the short term at least, due to heightened uncertainty and falls in confidence and investment. Longer term effects will largely depend on factors such as trade and productivity. The FT has examined three very different scenarios for the UK’s economic future outside the EU: a Booming Britain, a Troubled Transition and a Disastrous Decision.

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