Greek Lawmakers Gird for High-Stakes Vote

17/12/2014

 By Stelios Bouras and Alkman Granitsas

Vote Is First of Three Rounds

Greek lawmakers are scheduled to hold a first vote late Wednesday on the country’s next head of state, a largely ceremonial position but one that has become a flash point in Greece’s contentious politics and could determine whether the country goes to early national elections.

Few expect the government to garner the supermajority it needs to elect its candidate, former European commissioner Stavros Dimas, in the first round, and two more votes are likely to follow. But the first round, said analysts and government officials, will show whether the government’s gambit is gaining traction among lawmakers or is heading toward defeat.

The government—a coalition of the conservative New Democracy and socialist Pasok parties—holds just 155 seats in the 300-seat Parliament. It will have to rely on votes of some two dozen independent lawmakers, as well as renegade deputies in two smaller parties to reach the 180-vote threshold in the final round, tentatively scheduled for Dec. 29.

Under Greece’s constitution, if Prime Minister Antonis Samaras fails to get the necessary support by then to back his candidate, Parliament is dissolved and national elections are called.

“Make no mistake, everything will be determined in the third and final round,” said a senior government official. “We are waiting to see what happens in the first round. Then we will decide whether to be more aggressive in gathering votes if we need to.”

To be sure, the government faces an uphill struggle. Informal estimates suggest that the government might be able to garner between 160 and 165 votes Wednesday, and that a handful of undecided lawmakers might vote “present,” a signal that their votes are still in play.

But in the past week, the momentum seems to have shifted slightly in favor of the government. A rout in Greek financial markets last week underscored investor fears over the political uncertainty in Greece, as well as concerns that the antibusiness, radical-left Syriza party could come to power in prospective national elections.

Weekend polls also showed that popular sentiment was shifting. An increasing number of Greeks—more than half—say they don’t want early elections, while Syriza’s lead in the polls is shrinking.

A poll issued Monday by the privately owned Mega television channel showed that Syriza’s edge over New Democracy had narrowed to 3.2 percentage points, down from 4 percentage points just a week earlier.

“People are scared and are sending this message to the government, along with the fact that they do not prefer early elections,” said Aristides Hatzis, an associate professor of law and economics at the University of Athens. “However, I have reservations about what the poll data show, there are differences among them, and things in Greece right now are very fluid.”

It remains uncertain how many of the independent lawmakers the government will be able to win to its side. Of the 24 nonaligned parliamentarians, eight say they might back the government’s candidate, seven say they won’t, and the remaining nine are undeclared.

But the government will also need votes from potential dissenters in two small parties—Democratic Left and the right-wing Independent Greeks.

Both parties have declared they will vote down any candidate to try to force national elections. But Democratic Party leader Fotis Kouvelis, who was once part of the coalition government, signaled this week that his party lawmakers could vote their conscience.

Significantly, polls also show that neither of the two small parties will necessarily clear the 3% threshold needed to enter the legislature if national elections are held. That means the 10 Democratic Left lawmakers and 12 Independent Greeks parliamentarians, stand to lose their seats in the near future.

“The situation is changing,” said a second senior government official. “Many who originally said ‘no’ [to any candidate] are now saying they are rethinking it.”

Πηγή