Smaller Party Could Emerge as Kingmaker in Greek Election

21/1/2015

By Stelios Bouras And Nektaria Stamouli

To Potami Seen as Possible Moderating Influence for Front-Runner Syriza

Greece’s elections on Sunday are poised to give one of a handful of smaller parties a central role in the direction of the country—and possibly the entire eurozone.

The opposition leftist Syriza party and the ruling conservatives, New Democracy, are battling for a first-place finish. But neither is likely to get a majority and will need to turn to another party to help govern, putting whoever comes in third in a position to become a kingmaker.

The contenders range from the far-right Golden Dawn, shunned by Greece’s mainstream parties, to Pasok—part of the ruling coalition, but a shadow of the party that dominated Greek politics for most of the past four decades.

The favorite to take third place, though, is To Potami. The middle-of-the-road party was launched by a prominent TV journalist in March and has rapidly drawn voters disillusioned with politics as usual. It is now running neck-and-neck with the ultranationalist Golden Dawn for third in the polls, at between 5% and 7%.

Golden Dawn—known for its swastika-like emblem and its violent anti-immigrant rhetoric—continues to attract some voters with its anti-establishment message. But nearly all of Golden Dawn’s leadership is in prison on charges of belonging to a criminal organization, and Greece’s other parties have sworn off forming a government with the far-right party.

The outcome of Sunday’s elections could have lasting repercussions for the eurozone. The antiausterity Syriza party’s front-runner status has revived fears of a Greek exit from the eurozone and rattled markets with its claim that it is prepared to unilaterally tear up Greece’s agreement with its international creditors.

To Potami’s leader has been coy about whether he would agree to form a coalition with Syriza, saying he would prefer some kind of national unity government of the top parties.

But his party is seen as a potential moderating influence. “Teaming up with a coalition partner like To Potami will give (Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras ) an alibi with his party’s radical left-wing members to push through some tough decisions that will be demanded by international creditors,” said John Dimakis at STR, an Athens-based communications consultancy.

But with no experience in politics and no track record in government, To Potami is also raising questions about its platform. Though it has strongly backed staying in the euro, critics accuse the party of not clearly outlining its policies and fielding inexperienced candidates that could make costly mistakes for the country.

Like Syriza, it advocates a change in the country’s traditional two-party domination by New Democracy and Pasok. But common ground between the parties—and their leaders—seems to end there.

To Potami says Greece must remain in the eurozone at all costs. Any changes in the country’s reform and austerity program—or renegotiation of its debt burden—must be conducted in concert with the international creditors from the eurozone and the International Monetary Fund, which have footed the country’s €240 billion rescue package.

Our positions are “immutable,” To Potami leader Stavros Theodorakis said in an interview. “The euro is our currency, and Europe is our home. The whole debate (about leaving the euro), which is for internal political consumption, does damage to the country.”

Under Greece’s electoral law, the winning party is awarded 50 bonus seats in Parliament, a measure aimed at facilitating the stability of an elected government. But even with a steady three- to four-percentage-point lead, Syriza doesn’t look like it will win a big enough share of the vote to clinch an outright majority in the legislature. Polling on average between 30% and 35% of the vote, it may fall two to five seats short.

If the polls are borne out, Syriza will then have three days to find coalition partners. Its options are few: The party has ruled out forming a coalition with Golden Dawn, while Greece’s Communist party, rivals to Syriza, have repeatedly rejected any overtures.

And a coalition with either the Independent Greeks, a right-wing party that has little in common with Syriza apart from an antiausterity stance, or Pasok, seen as an emblem of the old discredited establishment, could well stoke internal opposition inside Syriza.

If no coalition is formed in the first three days, the mandate then passes to the likely second-place finisher, New Democracy. If New Democracy fails to form a government, which is expected to be the case, the opportunity goes to the third-place finisher.

Mr. Theodorakis believes his party is in a position to form a government, suggesting that the shape and terms of a future coalition government will come down to his party. The country’s debt problem “is a national battle, I would say the mother of all battles, and we are obliged to be united when we join it,” he said.

“In these elections, the third place finisher will be the catalyst of political stability in the postelection landscape,” he said.

What that might be, he won’t say, though he suggests that a solution may lie in a grand coalition involving both Syriza and New Democracy, something public opinion polls show many Greeks say they want.

He also said he would consider working with Syriza, but not without conditions, though he didn't name them.

“We should not be considered a given. We have said with honesty and courage that we are part of the solution, but under no circumstances will we be part of [Syriza’s] problems” created by their policies, he said.

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