30/3/2015
By Peter Spiegel
There has been lots of analysis on a new list of economic reforms that the Greek government sent to its bailout monitors over the weekend, including this incredibly comprehensive report from the Athens-based analytical website Macropolis.
But before everyone goes concluding that this is the final list that eurozone creditors will rule on, remember: nothing has been submitted yet to the eurogroup – the committee of 19 eurozone finance ministers that will ultimately rule on whether the reforms are sufficient to unlock the remaining €7.2bn in bailout funds Athens desperately needs.
And tonight’s “deadline” for bailout monitors to approve a submission, and then forward it onto the eurogroup, is nothing more than a self-imposed one; in reality, there is no deadline other than the date when Athens eventually runs out of cash.
People on both sides of the negotiations say that despite three days of talks, the list is not comprehensive as yet. “There was no such thing as an original list,” insists an official from one of the bailout monitoring institutions. “There were contributions, tables, pieces of paper.”
Indeed, on the Greek side, some involved in the discussions say a fuller, longer, and more detailed document is in the works. They argue the issue is not, as many among the bailout monitors claim, a lack of detail. The issue is getting all the details – some 72 reforms, according to one person in the Athens camp – into a well-organised document, in English, without mistakes in substance or politics.
One item that is likely to be included in the final list – but not in the summary provided by Macropolis – is the much-hated Greek property tax known as Enfia, a Greek acronym for “single tax for real estate property”, which the governing far-left Syriza party railed against during January’s election campaign.
Despite the campaign promises, the bailout intuitions are applying heavy pressure on Athens to keep the levy, and it appears Tsipras has conceded the point. It remains unclear how much Enfia is expected to raise in 2015, however. Some officials say it could be as much as €2.5bn of the expected €3bn in new revenues in the Syriza plan, but others say it’s a more realistic €1bn or so.
Still, EU officials remain unimpressed, arguing that most of the measures rely on crackdowns on waste, fraud and tax evasion – estimates that are frequently unreliable even in jurisdictions with a proven record of efficient tax collection – and new efficiencies in public administration, something frequently promised by all governments seeking to squeeze cash out of the system, with mixed results.
The so-called “euro working group” of eurozone finance ministry deputies are expected to have another of their regular teleconferences to discuss the negotiations on Wednesday, and their regularly-scheduled Brussels meeting will be next week. But several officials say that Greek hopes of a full meeting at ministerial level won’t happen this week, pushing a decision on whether the list is adequate well into next week at the earliest.
EU officials said they don’t expect to be back and in full force from the Easter holiday until next Tuesday, leaving very little time for any decision to release bailout funding before Greece must make a €450m payment to the International Monetary Fund next Thursday, April 9. All eyes are on whether Athens has enough cash on hand to make that payment. It could be a nerve-fraying week.
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